Just one precision for tomorrow opec decision

-1Mbd announced means in effective cut about 300Kbd

Since so many members didn’t deliver their actual quotas

Anything above 1Mbd would be a bullish surprise

Global economy should not count on oil helping buffer the slow down …
S&D is at risk of being the tightest its been in 2 years

I am not convinced opec needed to cut into q4… so with their cut market should be tighter than last year at the same period. They are very serious about their price objective.

some will read that demand for their crude is poor hence they cut so not that positive. If even assumed that demand is coming off hard into dec22 market should remain tight post opec cut. After a bit of zig zag this week into opec announcement crude should get back to opec prefered price pretty quickly

-it does however remove some upside pressure as opec will be able to release barrels in case of demand disruption

After Norwegian company warned of sighting of drones near its offshore oil and gas fields in the North Sea last week, now Total of France is warning about the same.
The later reported a drone near its Halfdan B platform, >200 km offshore. No chance that’s a civilian drone! Since there is no more gas exported and therefore no more leverage there per se, maybe Putin is starting to check out other painful measures – might be deference at this stage
once the annexed regions are proclaimed and Ukraine will contest them then those oil filed retaliations might become a realistic scenario

I shall stress that if one think Europe is experiencing the toughest period this coming winter then wait for next year. Until now there was a decent flow of Russian gas to Europe and the Ukrainian pipeline is still running. It’s probably fair to assume that non will run in 2023 so refilling storage in the summer 23 will be a titanesque task. It’s also not impossible that the spot European gas market will be partially closed

US crude production is about flat month on month at 11,949M… the 12.5M forecast at year end is now far away. Maybe the more serious question is, can US production really grow meaningfully next year?

There was a time US prod was always surprising to the upside, it seems to have turned the other way around surprising to the downside